Time Machine

Photo by Mohamed Osama on Unsplash

It has been quite a while since I wrote a Meditations post (aka this publication). Apologies for the hiatus, I’ve been working on a new project (to be announced) that has consumed the time I used to dedicate to Meditations. I also have a new kid and newborns eat time like none other. I will do my best to get back to writing here with regularity. But, until things stabilize on my end, bear with me.

Today’s post focuses on something I’ve been thinking a lot about lately: time travel. More specifically, I often think about what I would do in terms of investing or trading if I were able to go back in time.

I typically find myself thinking what I imagine most people would think if facing a similar question: I would make a series of epic investments and compound like crazy.

For example, I’d probably pick up some AAPL stock for $0.22/share in the mid-1990s. I’d probably also want to buy some AMZN in 2001 for $0.35/share. I’d definitely buy some NVDA for $0.08/share in 2002. And, because it would be too hard to pass up, I’d go ahead and overbid to buy the 10,000 Bitcoin for two pizzas in 2010 - I’d offer 3 pizzas or maybe even 4!

If I was feeling really ambitious, I’d probably go ahead and sell some of the stocks in late 2007 then buying them back in early 2009. I might similarly skip the crypto winter. Sure I’d have a tax burden for selling, but the financial benefits of paying taxes and buying back lower would far exceed the outcomes of just holding.

I’m guessing none of this is all that earth shaking. “Duh, George, who wouldn’t do this.” But this is where the plot thickens.

One thing I never ever find myself thinking is that I would day trade or otherwise use some elaborate leveraged trading system to outdo the AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, Bitcoin combo above. When I could make more than enough money to last multiple lifetimes with a simple approach, why in the world would I choose the path that had me living in front of a screen for 12 or 18 hours a day or otherwise dealing with a ton of operational headaches?

Obviously time travel would enable perfect knowledge of what was to come and that would remove all uncertainty and related risk so my daydreaming here isn’t really fair. However, I still find comparing what I would do and what I actually do to be an interesting exercise.

To be clear, in real-time, I don’t day trade with a ton of leverage because it doesn’t suit me in terms of temperament (Lord knows I’ve tried). I don’t buy and hold either mainly because I’m not great at keeping the faith when the going gets tough - I like to cut losses to ensure I live to fight another day. So I live somewhere in the middle.

Regardless, my end conclusion is that I should likely incorporate more of what I would do into what I actually do (mindful that the future is uncertain).

You might be thinking, “Sure, but you have to pick the right stock(s) with that approach” to which I would say, “The same essential risk applies to picking the right fast trading method.”

Food for thought.